They were strange years: during the COVID crisis, schools were forced to close, students received remote education, and central final exams were cancelled. Education was turned upside down, and some young people struggled with learning.

In 2020, the central final exams did not take place at all. In the two years that followed, the government showed leniency in the final exams. For example, students were allowed to disregard a failing grade or were given an extra resit opportunity.

Is the bill coming due later?

This week, various media outlets (including Trouw, de Volkskrant, and NOS) reported that leniency-aided students were more likely to drop out of higher education or switch degree programmes.

Where did that news come from?

From an evaluation of education measures and expenditures during the COVID crisis. In this evaluation, the Ministry of Education states that final-exam students from 2021 and 2022 who benefited from leniency dropped out more often or switched programmes more frequently in higher education.

More often than whom?

More often than those who did not need leniency because they had higher grades and would have passed their final exams anyway.

So is that news?

You might think not. But the ministry added something else. There would even be a noticeable difference between the group that passed “by the skin of their teeth” and the group that passed their final exams only thanks to government relaxations.

What does “by the skin of their teeth” mean?

These students scored an average below a six on their final exams, but they did not need to disregard any failing grades. They would have passed regardless. The other group did need such a leniency measure. You might think the line between these two groups is very thin.

Can such a small difference in final exam results lead to such a large difference in higher education outcomes?

The evaluation itself does not make this clear. However, figures from an earlier report by DUO show what the difference is between leniency-aided students and those with a “6-minus” average who obtained their diploma just on their own merit.

So, does it matter?

At universities, hardly at all. The graph below shows the figures for the 2022 cohort for each of the three groups of pre-university (VWO) students. There is only a small difference between those who benefited from leniency and those who passed “by the skin of their teeth.” The difference compared to the rest (who passed with higher grades) is much larger.

And at universities of applied sciences?

There, the difference is larger. Students who benefited from leniency were less likely to remain in the same programme. For senior general secondary (HAVO) graduates, it can indeed be said that the relaxed final exams more often led to problems in higher education.